Argentina: election surprise amplifies market and political risks
Friday 23 August 2019
- Recent update on Argentina: Government’s decision to freeze energy prices and suspend VAT on certain products will complicate fiscal metrics. The country is likely to miss the IMF target of a primary balance for 2019. However, the IMF could disburse the September tranche of financial assistance, although conviction levels are low.
- Credit rating downgrade: As expected, markets reacted negatively to this news. The focus now would be on government’s ability to roll over short-term USD and Argentina Peso (ARS) denominated loans.
- Markets in the coming weeks: A bounce in asset prices could be seen as an opportunity to lighten further exposure to Argentina. Markets will now focus on the roll-over ratio of short-dated government debt in the country. Elsewhere, investors will closely watch the US-China rhetoric, comments from the Fed Chairman at Jackson Hole and global growth data.
Investment Talks Liquidity October 2019
Recent developments: A few high-profile fund suspensions have recently driven the focus back to market liquidity and how this can affect the ability of funds to meet certain redemption scenarios. Despite ample liquidity at the macro level, some areas of strain remain at the micro-level and could worsen in case of a material deterioration of economic conditions, a recession or a spike in volatility.
Investment Talks - US President Impeachment October 2019
The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long and articulated.
Brexit Update - Moving towards the October 31st deadline
What are the most recent updates?