- Global Investment Views - November 2018
Global Investment Views - November 2018
Thursday 25 October 2018
Research / Market
The late cycle narrative behind the autumn market malaise
The start of autumnmarked a change inmarket dynamics. Volatility is up across the board, the US 10-year yield is flirting with its highest level over the last seven years following a rapid rise; equitymarkets are under pressure. After a period of highly divergent forecasts, markets are starting to price in a synchronised slowdown in global growth, and, hence, the fact that the peak in earnings acceleration is progressively shifting to being behind us. Some ongoing dislocations are accompanying this new situation. Cumulative hikes in interest rates in the US, while limited in absolute terms, have been sufficient to trigger the early stages of a risk-off positioning in emergingmarkets which have recently been negatively affected by idiosyncratic stories (Turkey, Argentina) with weak fundamentals. The risk-off sentiment has been further exacerbated by the Italian budget situation, while the most recent risk-off moves have also broadened their effects to the US in the tech area, which is very stretched in terms of valuations.
Blue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#3 - A game of cycles
The world is now entirely racing for time against the Covid-19.Three cycles are under watch: the pandemic cycle, the financial cycle and the real economy cycle.
Blue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#4 - Some light in the fixed income space
Volatility will remain for a while in the equity and fixed income worlds. However, thanks to the action and coordination of central banks, massive debt issuance in Europe and in the US eased trading for both buying and selling sides.
Blue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#5 - The USA: opportunities in a market expecting a deep recession
The pandemic hit the USA, now the new epicentre of the storm. Fiscal and monetary stimulus came fast and in huge volumes to support the economy.