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Global Investment Views - November 2018
Thursday 25 October 2018
Research / Market
The late cycle narrative behind the autumn market malaise
The start of autumnmarked a change inmarket dynamics. Volatility is up across the board, the US 10-year yield is flirting with its highest level over the last seven years following a rapid rise; equitymarkets are under pressure. After a period of highly divergent forecasts, markets are starting to price in a synchronised slowdown in global growth, and, hence, the fact that the peak in earnings acceleration is progressively shifting to being behind us. Some ongoing dislocations are accompanying this new situation. Cumulative hikes in interest rates in the US, while limited in absolute terms, have been sufficient to trigger the early stages of a risk-off positioning in emergingmarkets which have recently been negatively affected by idiosyncratic stories (Turkey, Argentina) with weak fundamentals. The risk-off sentiment has been further exacerbated by the Italian budget situation, while the most recent risk-off moves have also broadened their effects to the US in the tech area, which is very stretched in terms of valuations.
Other news
Global Investment Views - December 2022
Markets have seen some relief in a year that overall is likely to be remembered as among the most challenging for investors.
ESG Thema #10 - There is no place like Earth: How investors can address biodiversity loss
Biodiversity, or the term used to describe all living organisms and ecosystems of which they are part, is declining at an alarming rate with now 1 million (out of an estimated 8 million) plant and animal species being threatened with extinction.
Hawkish surprise from the ECB
At its December meeting, the ECB hiked rates by 50bp, to 2.0% (deposit rate). The Bank delivered a very hawkish statement.