- Global Investment Views - November 2018
Global Investment Views - November 2018
Thursday 25 October 2018
Research / Market
The late cycle narrative behind the autumn market malaise
The start of autumnmarked a change inmarket dynamics. Volatility is up across the board, the US 10-year yield is flirting with its highest level over the last seven years following a rapid rise; equitymarkets are under pressure. After a period of highly divergent forecasts, markets are starting to price in a synchronised slowdown in global growth, and, hence, the fact that the peak in earnings acceleration is progressively shifting to being behind us. Some ongoing dislocations are accompanying this new situation. Cumulative hikes in interest rates in the US, while limited in absolute terms, have been sufficient to trigger the early stages of a risk-off positioning in emergingmarkets which have recently been negatively affected by idiosyncratic stories (Turkey, Argentina) with weak fundamentals. The risk-off sentiment has been further exacerbated by the Italian budget situation, while the most recent risk-off moves have also broadened their effects to the US in the tech area, which is very stretched in terms of valuations.
Global Investment Views - December 2019
In recent weeks equities rallied along with bond yields as investors reacted to the prospect of a US-China ‘phase one deal’ and fading global recession fears. The value of negative yielding bonds continued to fall, from US$17 trillion over the summer to the current US$12.5 trillion. While equities were previously overshadowed by the excessive gloominess on the global economy and earnings, markets rebounded after corporate results in the US and Europe met or exceeded low expectations, and as economic data did not show any material worsening. The mantra now seems to be ‘not so bad is the new good’.
Global Investment Views - August 2019
Global Investment Views - January 2019
Focus on fundamentals to ride turbulent markets