News & Events
56 news articles are available
Biden’s election momentum and financial markets
Joe Biden has a historically large lead over President Donald Trump in the polls, including in the critical electoral college vote, but that could narrow closer to the election.The slide in Trump’s approval rating was most noticeable among senior citizens and he has not led in a single major poll so far this year, though it should be noted that polls have proved unreliable in the past few elections.
Global Investment Views - July 2020
Covid-19 has triggered a sequence of economic and financial market narratives and is giving way to a new status quo characterised by extreme fiscal and monetary measures, to which markets have responded well, though some volatility has returned in the past few days. In effect, these policy measures are painting a new picture, that of a “day after” renaissance.
Focus on Italy: macroeconomic and fixed income scenario
If we wanted to characterise the contraction and recovery pattern, we would probably describe it as a ‘long U-shaped’ recovery; in other words, as a gradual normalisation which will take some time before seeing a return to pre-crisis levels. In Italy, the government is estimating an 8% GDP contraction this year, followed by a 4.7% YoY rebound in 2021. In our analysis, we consider two possible reference scenarios for 2020 growth: -8.0% YoY (as per the government scenario) and -12.0% YoY.
The day after #1 Covid-19: the invisible hand pointing investors down the road to the 70s
Without a doubt, the Covid-19 pandemic is shaking the financial industry like never before. But this is not the first time the world has faced a pandemic of this scale, nor is it the first time that public policymakers, business leaders and pundits have asked: “Is it different this time around? Are we at a turning point?”.
Blue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#6 - Emerging markets: a lower pressure on outflows
In terms of market pressure, the worst seems behind us concerning the emerging markets. Markets are appreciating the stimulus put in place around the world by central banks, the IMF and the World Bank.
Blue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#5 - The USA: opportunities in a market expecting a deep recession
The pandemic hit the USA, now the new epicentre of the storm. Fiscal and monetary stimulus came fast and in huge volumes to support the economy.
Cross Asset Investment Strategy - April 2020
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Global Investment Views - April 2020
Markets (financial cycle) are leading the economic cycle and will bottom out before the end of the coronavirus pandemic. However, they would stabilise once reassured on three points: The cyclical pattern of the pandemic, or when there is some sign of an improvement on the speed of the contagion. This depends on the ‘time’ variable (extension of the crisis period) and on the mobilisation efforts (containment measures introduced in different countries). There is still a lot of uncertainty at this point.
Blue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#4 - Some light in the fixed income space
Volatility will remain for a while in the equity and fixed income worlds. However, thanks to the action and coordination of central banks, massive debt issuance in Europe and in the US eased trading for both buying and selling sides.