- Global Investment Views - October 2018
Global Investment Views - October 2018
Tuesday 25 September 2018
Research / Market
Price dislocations lead to a rise in contrarian views
The hot summer in emerging markets (EM) has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year. While the ongoing US/China trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, the sequence of country-specific stories (Turkey, Argentina and South Africa) contributed to the almost indiscriminate repricing of EM assets, starting with plummeting EM currencies. The causes of the collapse seen in the currencies’ values in these countries are different (need to apply for IMF aid for Argentina; balance of payment crisis in Turkey, accelerated by the perceived lack of independence of the central bank; the start of an economic recession in South Africa, with additional concerns regarding the land reform plan).
Blue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#3 - A game of cycles
The world is now entirely racing for time against the Covid-19.Three cycles are under watch: the pandemic cycle, the financial cycle and the real economy cycle.
Blue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#4 - Some light in the fixed income space
Volatility will remain for a while in the equity and fixed income worlds. However, thanks to the action and coordination of central banks, massive debt issuance in Europe and in the US eased trading for both buying and selling sides.
Blue Convictions - SPECIAL COVID-19 ep#5 - The USA: opportunities in a market expecting a deep recession
The pandemic hit the USA, now the new epicentre of the storm. Fiscal and monetary stimulus came fast and in huge volumes to support the economy.